Thanks for the post. That's why I never want to "take care of" anyone until I see the basis for his opinion.
I agree that OEMs are important to 3dfx. They won Gateway with Banshee (did you notice that they're using it for their P3's as well? and they're finally advertising that they're using Banshees?) and they did win a few other decent size OEM's. They probably couldn't handle both the OEM demand and the retail demand for Banshee so one big OEM is a blessing in many ways.
I think that 32 bit 3D is a moot point for the next refresh. It isn't advertised as a feature and I don't think that it is a deal breaker. V3 will significantly outperform the other cards in benchmarks and it takes too much ad copy to list all the features. Heck, OEM's can stretch the truth and say 32 bit because V3 has 32 bit internal rendering. True AGP support is nothing. It doesn't give the OEMs anything and the V3 part allows them to say AGPx2 so that would be transparent in their ads.
V3 will be more than able to handle DVD chores via software. Even the new ATI part only takes part of the task away and still uses software decoding. V3 does accelerate some DVD functions and OEMs can again claim it in advertisments.
As for pricing, there is a floor. The other graphics companies have to make a profit as well. S3 and nVidia have to sell through cardmakers who sell through to OEM's. These cardmakers also compete in the retail market. In the end, the price is the only way to do it. They need relief on the chip price (which hurts nVidia's margins and ability to fund R&D). It is more inefficient and adds cost. The V3 2000 looks like it will have a street price of around $100. COuld be cheaper for high volume OEM wins.
ATI has the same model as 3dfx and also has a decent chip. STB relationships are important here. I see nVidia losing some OEM's to 3dfx, ATi, and S3. That makes retail even more important.
Voodoo and 3dfx are strong brand names. They offer compatability. Even today, there are games coming out that are Glide only, or Glide first, or Glide best. Look at the retail success of Banshee, even though TNT has it beat in many specs. Look at all the embedded Rage Pro's and Riva 128's. Seems like a 3D only add-on (V2) will still do ok for a little while longer. Plus 3dfx has good AMD 3D now support. The V3 2000 should be cheap enough to get embedded on those MB's.
I guess I'm much more optimistic about 3dfx's chances than you are. I don't see V3 dominating all the OEM's, but I do think there will be wins. The real wild card is their next chip. If "Rampage" is another leap forward, then Glide will become a real advantage again and they'll strenthen their brand name.
Michael |
