BB, It's hard to argue with your propeller beanie,
and even more so with your logic and reason. It is always rational and well-stated.
I would urge you to connect the dots on an OEX weekly chart. Specifically, connect 7/19/96, 4/18/97, 10/31/97, and 1/16/98, and come forward. You will note that on only one occasion did the market break that trend line (and I'll agree that it could have gotten bloody if it were not for some interesting intervention by the PPT).
My recent (rather limited) analysis shows that the market spends about a third of the time in a trading range. It spurts ahead and rests, waiting for the MA and trend line to catch up, and then spurts ahead again. I would not hesitate to agree with you that the problem is the current distance to the trend line and MA. But, I would again offer that as long as the major support is not broken on the OEX, we are simply in a healthy resting period.
Let's face it, the weekly TA on the OEX turned bullish the middle of October and remains so. I have been whip-sawed enough in trading ranges to not get overly excited by them any more. My daily TA indicators have given 3 buy and 3 sell calls over the last month and a half (the last sell call was Friday), and the previous 5 have been dead wrong. Thus, is life in a trading range. I'll let others play chicken little. I'll simply follow the 60 min sto.
Berney |
