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Technology Stocks : DRIV (DIGITAL RIVER). Get in on internet IPO.

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To: KJ Duke who wrote (1166)3/1/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: David Browning  Read Replies (2) of 3198
 
Messrs Miller and Duke: Thanks, and here's my own perspective......

MSFT is sending at least a couple of messages here. The trick is to read the code correctly.

First, existing retailers are being told to get in line if they want free advertising on the MSFT website, which they all do, in spades. What it took to get on the charter team of 4, is not clear, but the door is still open to others, should they wish to accede to whatever is being asked of them by MSFT.

Second, MSFT is carefully avoiding the appearance of competing with their retailers for the moment, witness the ERP effectively- premium-pricing. However, the mail is just under the velvet: the onsite sales system is there, and pricing may always be adjusted.

For us, the $64 question (perhaps literally!) is whether this is the harbinger of internal esd for MSFT. While I can think of no other software producer more likely to have indigestion at turning over its code to an outside publisher, we all know MSFT will ultimately have to do so. Keeping esd activity 100% in house would see them instantly in serious retailing competition with their long-serving retailers.

Therefore, I guess I see this as step one in MSFT's use of the web to sell software: getting into the water without making too much of a splash. Step two will be critical for us: will DRIV make the cut when it finally comes down to esd sales of MSFT software? I would still answer a qualified yes, for DRIV has been working on this account long and hard, and who else among the necessary outsiders, if not DRIV? However, the release has muddied the waters. Just as I don't know what MSFT is getting from the retailers for the linkage on the website, I'm unclear what pound of flesh may be required by Bellevue for an esd relationship. Or, might they just be unwilling to dance with anyone right now, DRIV or others, pending further development of this new initiative?

David
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