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Non-Tech : Heavy Machinery. CAT DE CSE DDC CUM
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To: John Stichnoth who wrote (27)3/1/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner  Read Replies (1) of 190
 
To bet on any of these companies is not a bet that the market will
go on a value hunt if the sh-- hits the fan, but rather its a bet that commodity prices will recover going forward - which just isn't a very smart bet. My post back in October argued that the weakness in these companies was a sign the economy was slowing - I
still stand behind that assessment despite the Q4 6% growth figure.
Why? because the mfg. part of the economy is in a recession, and the services part of the economy is in a boom - the Q4 figure could've been 10% growth, but either way it does not mean a quick recovery for the heavy equipment companies - the current growth is in a totally separate sector of the economy. The heavy equip. sector will become attractive when the rest of the world recovers - because their GDP figures are primarily commodity & non-services fueled. How do you think CAT and DE have been fueling growth in the past few years? By increasing the customer base abroad, not domestically, so whatever positives occur here in the USA really won't have that great an effect on the bottom line..... I would recommend these companies only for those with great patience.

CRB:
bridge.com@CR.1%5B1099wk%5D/wk/fc/hc

You can pick DE, FMC, CUM, CSE, AG, NH or any similar company... all of their charts track the CRB.
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