John,
This article by Jim Seymour is a disgrace and in my view an embarrassment to the author. It consists of a lot of conjecture, speculation and little else. Lets look at his six signs. First, there is no credible evidence at this time that corporate purchases are declining beyond normal seasonal fluctuations. Indeed, most companies are alrady y2K compliant and for those that are not, compliance often times includes replacement rather than fixing existing hardware. Second, the numbers do not reflect that amd is finally getting the job done. Indeed, my sources indicate that recent price cuts on the celeron have resulted in increased orders to intc and fewer to amd in out months. The month of January does not a trend make! Third, the Piii does not compete with amd k6 (apples and oranges - different market segments). More specifically, look at celeron vs. amd. Fourth, the k7 in best case is not expected until 4th quarter. Intc, will be marketing 550 - 600 mhz by then. Fifth, ftc action is a non-event to anyone who understands this case. First, it is an administrative action which is substantially different from the civil case against msft in federal court. Little comparison in this arena. Overall, article is, imho, misleading and a self serving Cramer disgrace. |
