Will, I want to begin by saying that I've followed your posts on this thread and appreciate the time and analysis you've share with us on KOPN.
Second, I have been long on KOPN for over a year and a half now. Got in based on their GaAs HBT technology (was long on RFMD and liked the fundamentals), but was intrigued by the potential of the CyberDisplay. I don't have much experience in this area but it seems that there are applications where KOPN's technology may have certain advantages.
Recently, I read a piece on wireless data put out by Lehman's research department after a trade show in San Diego. Their take on this is that it often talked about and holds great interest by industry participants but has made little headway in terms of practical application.
The primary reason for this is data transmission speeds and bandwidth of current wireless infrastructure systems. I don't have the piece with me so I can't be more specific, but Lehman seems to say that most wireless networks are currently designed around very limiting systems which are not optimal for transmission of large amounts of data. I think the distinction they made was that packet based networks, like what are being designed into wireline networks, are capable of transmitting large amounts of data with much lower error rates.
The subject of wireless data is of importance because, most people feel that wireless information devices, web browsers, or combination digital phones/Palm Pilots/web browsers are destined to become the next hot item (see latest issue of Business Week). And, for some sort of portable information device to be useful, displays will also become a critical part of the equation (it doesn't do much good to have wireless web browsing if you read web pages like you would on your PC).
The point to all this is, even if KOPN's CyberDisplay is designed into next generation PCS phones, portable web browsers, or whatever, until wireless systems are capable of handling larger amounts of data, their adaptation into the mainstream will be relatively slow.
Lehman seems to think that on the leading edge you will see high powered business types with devices that will be able to send/receive e-mail and also have some limited web browsing capability. But until the bandwidth and transmission protocol of most wireless networks evolve, we will not see their use in mass, hence volume sales of devices.
To be completely candid, Lehman did the analysis of wireless data, I extended this to the types of uses that would foster the proliferation of CyberDisplays (where my economic interest lies). Therefore, in my opinion, we will probably see weak order volume for these types of uses for at least the next 1 to 2 years. Digital cameras may be a different story.
Well that's just one man's opinion so they say. Cheers! |
