I just did a little searching and found the following posted on 28 July 1998: The Pitbull Crash Indicator signaled its first sell signal since 1994.
On their previous history, they show three signals: July 98 (which they got right, as per the message I quoted), July 90, and October 87 (great call, if they are telling the truth). Now, in 94 there was not a crash, so they would have had a false signal there. They also do not mention anything in summer 96 or spring 97, when we had pretty good NAZ corrections.
So this means that since 87, from the little data that they show, they would have had:
3 hits
1 miss (a crash signal with no crash)
2 non-calls (two "crashes" with no signal, although, to be fair, these were not classical 20% or more crashes)
Or a 50% call rate. A 50% batting avg in this market is not too shabby...
Mmmm... |
