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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (50855)3/1/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
El: I think that is realistic. Too often we flagellate ourselves by looking at the maximum we have lost on paper. In fact is is rare that a person buys at the bottom and sells at the top. Whether the decision is to buy and sell you have to tell yourself that you are probably going to miss out on the optimum and build that into your analysis.

I have had paper "losses" as large and larger than Michaels. It can be stomach churning. But the rewards are worthwile, too, when they come.

When we were in the high 40's and the 51 level I would have been delighted and surprised to have been able to buy at $40 (that's why I bought at $41). I honestly thought that there was an outside chance of it going to $38/39 and in a very bad market going to $35. I gave no serious consideration to less than $35. The thought crossed my mind that if the gurus who were saying and are still saying that the market is going back to 7500, then that might mean CPQ would revisit the low 30's high 20's. But the p/e, the fundamentals and the news from the company persuaded me that this was not really a realistic scenario. Of course when you start going down it is natural to think the trend will continue - a mirror image of the assumption when you are going up.

If margin is not a problem, kick back have a Bud and think of what you will do with the money when it gets to $60-90 within 12 months.
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