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Technology Stocks : Security Dynamics SDTI -- How much money can they make??

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To: Marty K. who wrote (1189)3/1/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 1614
 
"give 'em a bit of a break, Eric"

Marty, I'm not sure that SDTI has given investors much of a break in the last year. SDTI was the worst performing equity in my portfolio last year, despite the fact that I doubled down 3 times between April and October, and was also the worst YTD this year. Consequently I'm out at $20 per share with a small profit on what has been essentially dead money invested over the last 2 years. I reinvested proceeds in WCOM at $80 and only time will tell if this was a wise move.

Once bullish like you, I considered SDTI a sound long term investment. They had what I considered to be an exceptionally strong management team. They dominated Network Security implementation in Fortune 100 companies with ACE/Server and SecurID Tokens. They also had a plan to evolve and transition that user base to the emerging Network Security world were PKI is coming on strong and they owned the predominant standard, RSA's PKCS#11.

SDTI spent a lot of money last year hosting nationwide Executive Briefings centered on a product called SecurSight 2.0 and built significant expectation amongst both the IT/IS community and the financial community for a release of this product in January 1999 (this was the target set when they prereleased it at the RSA Conference which I attended in January 1999 an the Executive Briefing I attended in Woodbridge, NJ in April 1999 days after the 1st 'Earnings Surprise" which started the stock price to tumble head over heels).

SecurSight 2.0 was certainly an ambitious project but SDTI claimed to have 2/3's of their employees, over 200 engineers working on it. SecurSight is now an architectures and the product is now Keon. What was SecurSight 2.0 may be released sometime in the year 2000. The competitive edge SDTI could have had is GONE!

The initial release of Keon is nothing more than BoKS Desktop dusted off. Essentially it is the same product SDTI demonstrated at the 1998 RSA Conference 14 months ago and planned to (announced they would) release in July 1998 as SecurSight 1.0.

Tokens are a bit dated and they will probably be replaced by by smart cards in the Network Security world when 2 factor authentication is required. You might want to back track on this thread and read "Bulldozers' thoughts on that last spring. SDTI has protected their token cash cow but now has 2 mutually exclusive SecurID smart card offerings:

* SecurID 2100 Series - presumably based on early crypto chips from smart card industry giants Setec or Phillips (although IBM has recently teamed with Phillips to supplement their Gemplus partnership). No specs available so probably SDTI will update this product offer with contemporary offerings from Gemplus or Phillips.

* SecurID 1100 - using Gemplus MPCOS 8K - originally delivered by SDTI in October 1997 - yet another "dusted off product" released originally as part of the VeriSign OnSite program. See:

securitydynamics.com

I'll keep an eye on SDTI in the future and may buy back in if below $10.

Retain your optimism like I maintained mine for a long time.

- Eric -
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