Carl, my intermediate scenario is already negative, in part because we went above 5.375% on the long bond, which was the top of the down channel, and it broke through it, no just a fake head, but in a persistent breakout fashion. That will impact valuation models negatively and asset allocators will put more and more into bonds. Short term, however, we still have some upward momentum (from the low of two weeks ago this thur) which could carry us higher. However, this weak rally is showing a lot of signs of distribution, and I would use it to lighten up. If we do not go back to the down channel in rate, my positive scenario for the second half will have to be changed as well, particularly if the rates go above 6%, and we are not that far.
Zeev |
