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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.03

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (7267)	3/1/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Japan is bottoming, can't you smell the bearish sentiment. Bobby, Sure I can. But does that smell signal the bear is getting closer (and thus about to become nasty), or that its going away?? Japan's gov't faces some serious problems. They have an corrupt employment statistic that hides the vast numbers of workers carried on the payroll who are not performing productive work. These workers are effectively un/underemployed and provided salaries based upon cheap loans from the Gov't and BOJ in order to preserve the concept of "lifetime employment". Resolving this inefficiency will not be easy bit and will have political costs the LDP does wish to face (due to the resulting loss of face). They continue to preach production over profits and until there is fundamental restructuring in their economy (ie: layoffs), they risk revisiting previous failed attempts at priming the economic pump. They Yen has to be weakened for the Japanese economy to export is way to profits, while also lessening the debt burden for those carrying the massive bad loans. However, this reinflation will have to be carried out on the backs of current Japanese depositors. Weaken the Yen and the dollar will be an even more attractive storehouse of value (at least bonds). Summation? It ain't over yet in Japan. Regards, Ron

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