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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (7274)3/1/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
BB,

I love discussing this kind of stuff, so pardon my response. (I love to have other people's opinions).

Japan has been in a bear market, but they have not taken the drastic economic actions required to fully cure the disease that caused it.

Bear markets end generally with short term interest rates in the 2-4% range, not .25 - .50% range. The Japanese have no wiggle room left to boost their economy outside of weakening their Yen through massive offerings of gov't debt (making them a larger debtor nation than the US).

Japan is a basket case because previous stimulation programs were half-hearted and not directed at the fundamental problems in the Japan economic structure, that of heavy gov't subsidization of corporations and pushing market share over profits.

And it is dragging the rest of Asia down with it.

And the Japanese haven't even seen a great depression yet. They are still guaranteed lifetime employment by many big corporations.

The Yen can get stronger and deepen the recession even further should the politicos and financiers over there not get their collective acts together.

Btw, did I mention the way Y2K factors into this?? What happens when the Japanese population discover that their political leaders are only now coming to the realization that they have done little, outside of the financial sector, to prepare for it?

Can you say Capital flight?

Regards,

Ron
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