OT{cable/xdsl?}
I keep hearing the same thing with cable modems from areas where there is a large installed base, ie its gets slower and slower as number of users added to trunk.
---------------------
"Since 1980, the monthly expenses with telephony services of each American family is remaining in 2% of the total monthly expenditures. The expenditures in dollars increased for a series of reasons: GNP, inflation, etc. But it doesn't matter, the truth is that the expenses with telephony come coherently keeping in 2%. There are not many miracles that can modify this fact.
As a matter of fact a lot of services had been introduced in the last years, but the expenditures had not changed significantly. This is due the competitiveness in the long distance industry that slashing phone rates in 85% since 1984. Actually Qwest is offering long distance calls at only 5 cents / minute if you agreed to pay a monthly fee of $15. Long distance service going to be Flat Rate. This will allow a migration of the actual long distance revenue for the new broadband services. The consumer response is slow and the companies move very slow too. But, soon or later the broadband era will be reality. The telecommunications expenditures for households will grow up, slowly but it will. At each day the number of telecommuters increase. I am telecommuter of a Brazilian company Brazil living in U.S.A. Years ago, it was unthinkable.
Cable or ADSL? I have a cable modem but I am waiting Bell Atlantic install my ADSL access, because the cable service is not the same it was 6 monthly ago. In fact, actually I only reach 300 Kb and 6 months ago I used to reach up to 1.2 Mb. But, ADSL has problems too, but I want to test it. Everything is a question of sharing. Both of services are shared but Cable modems are shared two times, in the network by the customers because the network uses a tree configuration, and in the backbone. ADSL is shared only in the backbone, because the telecommunication network uses a star configuration.
But depending on how many customers are shared for each Internet trunk, the ADSL service can be worse than cable, if it uses a better sharing relation.
According to Market Research Institute, a firm commissioned by Cable World to conduct a study of the cable modem marketplace, 73% of Internet users are not interested in paying $40 a month for cable modem service. AOL intends to charge its ADSL customers only $ 20 bucks more. People who only uses Internet sporadically do not intend to pay more than $ 20 for the actual services. The killer application in Internet is e-mail yet. We have to find a broadband killer application.
But, I believe that in the future we all will be subsided by adds. Take a look on England Internet market. There are 30 ISPs offering Internet free or near-free, including BT. Companies will pay for us. When we think that e-commerce will generates more than US$ 1 trillion dollars in 2003, it's not difficult to see that it will be a lot of companies financing the Internet high speed customers. E-commerce depends of ADSL and cable modems to bereal. There no way out."
Algar Group - CTBC Telecom
Norden |
