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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: RocketMan who wrote (22585)3/2/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
RocketMan,

>>>> Or a 50% call rate. A 50% batting avg in this market is not too shabby <<<<<<

A 50% rate at calling specificly a crash is very good. It is so hard to call a big move on a technical basis.

I realise that you were being conservative, since as you mentioned 2 of them were not really market wide classical crashes, so their success rate could be 75%, which is fabulous.

I think most underestimate the difficulty in predicting a crash, not just a correction. Its hard enough to call a 5-10% correction, but to call a 20%+ drop is geometrically harder.

Seeya

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