Compaq Message Board - Msg: 8107831

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Key West who wrote (50929)	3/2/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: jim kelley	of 97611

Gene, Sales to the channel are going to be off for the next quarter and a half due to stuffing. MUEI claims that the preanouncement of the PIII caused them to lose enough sales in Jan and Feb to create a revenue shortfall due to power users waiting for the latest technology. Probably some truth to this. The direct sales companies will have to sell the latest technology at good prices to compete with the firesales of old channel products from IBM and CPQ. CPQ is in for trouble with revenues down to about 9.7 B and earning off another 100 M due to devaluation of the Real. CPQ is headed for cash flow hell. Other than that, I think the industry unit demand will grow 15 to 17% this year. Expect to see further shrinkage in ASP due to competition. Further consolidation in the industry favoring DELL and perhaps GTW. Regards, Jim Kelley

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