Prediction, Captain: if there isn't a domestic partner by May 1, there is not going to be a partner.
Should it occur, it would be a trade-off for Vivus. They'll get higher unit sales, but lower revenue per unit sold. The higher the volume, the greater the opportunity for profit.
If sales are expected to increase to only, say, 1997 levels, it may be that VVUS and the Partner cannot reach an equitable division of the pie. In light of Viagra, it would not be unreasonable for the Partner to conclude that Q397 is the high-water for MUSE domestically. Neither company may feel it can make a decent profit with that level of volume. Negotiations, if they exist, may likely turn on differing perceptions of the size of the PROBABLE, rather than potential, MUSE market.
The obvious choice here is Janssen or Astra. Each is familiar with MUSE and already have a working relationship with Vivus.
For whatever reason, perhaps Vivus wanted too favorable terms for itself, neither signed with Vivus last July. If the press release announcing a 'search', was a way of forcing their respective hands, it was a tactic which didn't work. The fact that a partnership wasn't reached then casts significant doubt on an agreement ever being reached.
Janssen, with an English-speaking presence in Canada, would seem to be the logical choice of the two. Janssen hasn't signed.
The purported explanation for Astra and Vivus not signing an agreement as yet, has been the merger. Now that it's coming to completion, I see no impediment here.
May 1st or it aint going to happen. FWIW. |
