Joe, I agree with your analysis, and would add two things. First, the slowdown in computer sales has a lot to do with the high end users waiting for Pentium III and the low end users having bought at Christmas, so now the manufacturers have to push the low-priced PCs. This will self-correct when the Pentium III comes out and the seasonal sales return. All of this is a wash on AOL's fundamentals, but it does affect the momentum traders.
Second, the overall market is going through some tough times, and AOL is reflecting that. Notice how, in spite of all the great news that have been coming out on AOL, that the price is reacting more to the overall market. Whenever the price begins to move up, the market declines and brings it back down. I'm afraid we are going to be in this mode for a while. I almost wish a big correction would come so we could get over it, wash out the bears, and get back to a bull market. |
