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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: David Howe who wrote (1867)3/2/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: Bob Swift  Read Replies (2) of 10280
 
Dave, perhaps I wasn't clear on what I meant by "WHAT IF no one cares about a half-way better mouse trap". There are 3 possibilities when it comes to ICE.
(1) R is good, S is bad
(2) R is good, R and S both have side effect
(3) R is both good and bad
If it is possibility (1) or (2), we have no worry since the side effect will be reduced by 100% or 50% respectively.
By half-way better scenario, I am referring to possibility #3 where the only claim the ICE has over the existing drug is that you need only half the dosage to achieve the same effect. My question therefore is whether Lilly or SGP can easily convince the consumers to pay higher price for the ICE versus the for sure cut-throat pricing of the generics. In my mind, it would be very important for Lilly and SGP to establish a presence for the ICE before the old drug patent expire and just outright extinct the production and sale of the racemic drug so that by the time the generic comes around, they will have to convince the patients to switch to the bad old drug - some thing they can brain wash the patients on TV not to do. They can even advertise that they are giving up on the racemic and switch to the ICE before their patent expires.That certainly will put a question mark in patients' minds.

Thus, I agree with Peter that it may just come down to marketing with a little help from a slight improvement. I am watching nervously to see how this unfold in the next 18 months or so.May be you and Peter have a point that the big pharms will push hard on the ICEs. Lets hope so but I am past the point of basing my hope on the fact that they have a large number of patents.Does anyone have any feeling which of the above three possibilities Xopenex belongs ?
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