** To threaders **
I seem to suffer from premature speculation. I purchased shares
of AMAT in the fall of 1997 even as Cap'n Morgan was on CNBC.
I wanted to get the "CNBC Bounce" plus it seemed a good stock
to buy at 38.
In a few days I realized I had become a long term investor, in
spite of the messages then, here, about how AMAT would be at 40
by the end of 1977 and at 45 by Jan 15 of 1998.
We all know what happened since then.
I have two problems.
1. I failed to load up when it was down to 24 because so
many were negative at that time and many were waiting for AMAT
to get down to 22,
2, I suffer from delayed pull out. I now wish I had sold at the
recent 70 or 69 or 68 prices.
Those smarter than me bought a bunch at 26 or 27 (Paul V.)
and some others, smarter than many of us, recently sold at 70.
I was not smart enough to "pull out" and sell at 70 0r 68!
Even worse, I bought more at 59 today because so many
were telling me that this is a "buying opportunity."
Once again, did I jump too soon on a "dead cat bounce?"
Did I just, again, become a long term investor at 59
as I did when I purchased in the Fall of 1997 at 37?
My thanks to Gottfried for his incomparable historical
comparisons. And my hat is off to Brian for his consistent
bullish comments. We do wonder what happened to Big Bucks.
The question is, where do we go from here?
Should I sell everything, or just hang on? Will the shares
at 37 remain profitable and will the shares at 59
be profitable in time, and if so, when?
Should I sell out now and buy in later or just hang on?
I realize this is pretty mundane stuff for you more
experienced with AMAT, but I think my concerns are
those of a lot of other lurkers here.
I have avoided stocks such as MU and IOM because they
seem to be so heavily manipulated. Has AMAT fallen
into the same camp?
I can only tell you, in my general way, that I think
AMAT is better controlled and manipulated by the big
Market Makers and Mutual Fund Managers than many of
us realize.
Am I too cynical or timorous? We climb a wall of worry
to rise in a bull market. Even worse, what to do in
a short term bear market?
Buy more, sell all, or hold and hope. What to do? |
