Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 221.80

-3.0%

10:06 AM EST

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To: ILCUL8R who wrote (28752)	3/3/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Richard, re >The question is, where do we go from here?< The one 'indicator' I look at the most is monthly SEMI orders. geocities.com:80/WallStreet/5464/ord_prce.gif In the past AMAT has tracked them well, but recently the stock price has gone ahead of orders. The correction we had is not reflected in my chart yet. [that would be the price at the end of February, $55.625]. Monthly prices can be found on Yahoo... chart.yahoo.com Peak orders in '97 were near $1.8B, but January '99 orders of less than $1B were reported. I believe we are in the upleg of a cycle and have a ways to go. In '97 the price started to drop rapidly BEFORE orders peaked. So watching orders peak will get you out well after the price peak. I don't know of a way to anticipate the orders peak. But I'm convinced there are investors who are privvy to monthly orders before SEMI publishes them. So it seems that setting a stop loss sell order below the current price is the only way to keep most of your gains. Of course it might also whipsaw you. Brian's argument that we will see the mother of all cycles is persuasive, but speculative. We had so many predictions here - by sincere and smart people - and most turned out to be wrong. So I try to go by what happens - not by what should happen. Nevertheless, those with faith may still turn out to be correct. I'm not buying more AMAT here. Gottfried

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