I don't think you'll catch IBM or Sony doing any of Xybernaut's R&D. While IBM may be perfectly happy making $85 (my irrelevant guess) in software revenue per MA-IV, and Sony is content making considerably more per unit for their tooling expertise and investment, I wouldn't expect they are supplying many free engineers to Xybernaut.
As far as cheap wearables go, I do see a scaled down wearable PC in Xybernaut's distant future, but "scaling down" right now would tend to cause reduction of differentiation of it's product from the other limited-capability "pocket computers" coming into the marketplace.
The Xybernaut is not equivalent to today's definition of a pocket computer (which are inevitably stripped of some important facets of a PC). The MA-IV is a full function personal computer designed to be integrated into a mobile workday.
The fact is, I'm not the least bit interested in walking around on my social time with a geek machine strapped to my torso. It's not necessary and just not good carma. The internet must mature, as does it's interface. Cell phone economics and connectivity must also change. Energy-conserving microprocessor technologies must continue to clock faster (there is a LOT of technology in those specially developed, energy sipping 233/266 MHz microprocessors). Low-energy memory must continue to grow in capacity.
Also, society must change before a human can walk down the street sporting a PC (and not get beat up). Frankly, if any company came out with the 'perfectly cheap' wearable right now, they would go bankrupt due to lack of market. While everyone would want to have a look, only a tiny fraction of the population would not mock it (O.K., if you're reading this, you're probably one of the few who it would appeal to:^).
Xybernaut's association with Samsung may breed a more powerful version of a wearable, built around the new low-energy Alpha chipset and the Microsoft platform. We'll see when the time comes. Until then (and after then), Xybernaut is the only company which offers a full-function PC in intrinsically toteable form. This has value in many business environments. Xybernaut's emphasis on the industrial market is not an accident. It's the reason they have not gone out of business. The MA-IV can be profitable in many work arenas and businesses are just beginning to learn this.
My main question is: Is this iteration of the product being recognized and purchased by industry in any significant volume? I believe it is, but Xybernaut is not saying, and Xybernaut-supplied indicators point both ways. This is worrysome, but mainly to the warrant holders, because imminent growth is more a matter of time, and less a matter of luck.
The bottom line is: There is no money to be made from an economical wearable PC until a mass market evolves. This won't happen in a year or two. Right now the interest is in industrial applications. And cutting cost corners is not as important to industry as providing a rugged, reliable product. This is good. This allows a healthy profit margin to make up for volume limitations.
Give me real news, or give me a stable stock price. This rumor crap is for the birds.
Shoe. |
