<It is likely that as these trades dry up, the spread will increase resulting in a new low.>
Anything is possible, but there are holes in your argument.
First, while it may be true that one fund swaps with another in the same family of funds, there is no way that an individual fund can avoid the loss. More to the point, once these swaps "dry up", it is not going to affect the supply - which is the only way the price can be affected.
Second, I have a Level II also, and except at the beginning there have been relatively few delayed block trades which is the best way to detect a swap.
Finally, 23 1/2 is the low for the past year and there is very strong technical support at this level. Most holders have purchased at or above this level and are going to be reluctant to sell below it. You only have to read this thread to prove this fact and even as we speak analysts are calling COMS a strong hold or even a buy at these prices. After all, the company is going to earn .23 vs .02 a year before and on much grater revenue. Finally, IF YOU BELIEVE the company, they have strong prospects for the following quarter.
Bruce |
