Wolfgang, ABDR could be a good short. I've not followed ABDR actively since October when I sold to reinvest in some companies that offered more compelling alternatives. As investors we all have a finite amount of capital and must make hard choices of where best to put it. A gambit that paid off:
techstocks.com
Sometimes the opportunity costs work in your favor. As for ABDR I would consider it overvalued based on the P/E to growth rate metric.
Revenues for the fourth quarter were $12.5 million, a 44% increase over revenues of $8.7 million for the same period a year ago. Net income was $2,946,000, or $0.29 per diluted share, up 43% from $2,055,000, or $0.20 per diluted share, reported for the same period a year ago.
Revenues for 1998 were $47.0 million, a 52% increase over revenues of $31.0 million for the same period last year. Net income was $11,426,000, or $1.12 per diluted share, a 52% increase over net income of $7,497,000, or $0.74 per diluted share for the same period last year.
The Q over Q revenues have ticked down from the 60-50% range, I'm not knocking it, the growth has been great but ABDR is fairly valued 50-55, IMO. OTOH the stock has a forward EPS of 1.51 and 2.12 for 99 and 2000. Notice the growth is expected reaccelerate from 99 to 2000.
biz.yahoo.com
That makes it a slightly undervalued on a forward P/E to growth metric. If you feel the market is about to correct and ABDR is going to correct with it you may have a potential short candidate. I am not aware of a fundamental or systemic operational flaw in ABDR's business model. They have a strong niche in the cataloge market and hope to leverage that into Business to Business and other e-commerce verticles. This has been in the works for over a year and is not a fly by night rush job like many of the renamed .com companies have announced in PRs. As for the direct marketing market Federated recently acquired fingerhut and even the lowly Hanover Direct has come to life. The market maybe putting a premium on ABDR due to this combined with the the promise of robust future earnings.
ON a TA note after trading in 40-55 range for almost a year now ABDR did breakout above 60. I'm not sure of the significance but it looks it will either fail and go back to its regular trading pattern or a new range will be established. Any ideas ?
Sorry for the delayed response, good luck in the markets.
Denis |
