The early action this morning was somewhat baffling (straight down and straight back up on HUGE volume as the $SOX wobbled around at more or less the same level), but the last half hour in MU today is an eye-opener.
The last 45 minutes today was a market-wide paint job, IMO -- nobody in their right mind looks at the combination graph of yesterday and today and decides that something magical happened at 3:15 and now everything is a buy. But for once MU didn't go along for the ride, and indeed hit the day's low just before the close.
There was a lot of selling at 52 3/8 on the way down. Six or seven big blocks traded there. That was the only real big block action after the first hour or two, so I think we have more to go.
I had sold some March 60 puts against my long July 65 puts, and missed out on about 3 points of downside. (I thought 55 was gonna hold better than it did.) I bought them back at a loss today, and I'm going to wait until I see definite signs of the end of the drop before hedging myself again.
50 is starting to appear in the distance as the next stop. That's the point where every single person who bought in 1999, when we went non-linear on the wild ride to 80, becomes a loser. Of course, it's the point where Big Money is long, long gone. (We might already be at that point.) If I don't see anybody showing any new interest there, I'm gonna let 'em ride. |
