Roger,
Thanks for the follow up. BancBoston Robertson and Stephens reiterated Buy on 2/24 and estimated $.30. The consensus of .34 as in both first call and Zacks may be old. So they are at least better than BRS estimated. Excerpts as follows:
QUOTE:
We believe early Q1:99 business trends have demonstrated improvement from Q4 results as we believe comps are tracking in the (2-3)% range as compared to (5)% comps in Q4:99.
Management plans to launch its new advertising campaign, which emphasizes the high quality of GNC branded assortments, on March 1st. Management has budgeted 6% of sales toward its advertising and marketing campaign, a level flat to F1998 levels.
We expect management to announce Q4:98 EPS results on March 4th with a
10:30 am EST conference call with the following dial-in number (800)283-1693. Based on (5)% comps, we maintain our Q4:98 EPS estimate of $0.30 vs. $0.39 a year ago, which yields a relatively flat F1998 of $1.25 vs. $1.24 a year ago.
Our F1999 EPS estimate of $1.40, which assumes 11.3% annual EPS growth, projects negative low-single-digit comp trends in 1H:99 with comp improvement expected in the back half, as the company will anniversary the dramatic pricing declines in Q3:99. We have maintained our F2000 EPS estimate of $1.70, which assumes $0.18-0.20/sh EPS accretion from the Rite-Aid alliance.
With the stock trading at 9.9x and 8.2x our F1999 and F2000 EPS estimate of $1.39 and $1.70, respectively, we continue to recommend purchase as we believe GNC's strong brand positioning coupled with Rite-Aid's credibility should capture considerable market share gains and drive EPS upside to our current estimates, with compelling growth opportunities across the Internet. Thus, we believe the stock's risk/reward profile is highly skewed toward equity ownership, as we
believe current levels represent the stock's downside risk with a $27/sh upside potential, or approximately 15x F2000 EPS estimates, should yield 65% stock appreciation from current levels. Thus, at current levels, we strongly recommend purchase.
UNQUOTE
How would the market respond if they really come in at $.31? I guess it depends on how whether the PR said it beat or below. For the long term, does it matter?
This stocksheet says institution ownership is 82.9% :
stocksheet.com
No wonder this thread is so quiet!
RT
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