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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.56

-1.5%

Nov 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: stockycd who wrote (7450)	3/3/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I have to agree with Don though that the cycle indicators are nearing the lower ranges now so I don't expect a collapse quite yet. Most of my stuff is in the low 30 to 20 range. Not quite buy yet ut in the oversold bias area. We could get a technical bounce soon then resume our drop at an accelerated pace. I do see using trendlines etc what you do though and feel if we don't exhibit some changes in internals and find a sector to take over the lead soon this market has had it. The SPU has violated a long term fork, many of the strong stocks I follow have fallen from PE ratios inthe 50s and 60s to single digits and 20 area on no news or foreseeable slow downs in revenues. I definitely concur on your view of the BKX as it is nearing a downward resistance line connecting the highs of July and January. As Vitas or someone else on the Kahuna thread said last night, stocks are quietly being taken out back and executed one at a time while no one notices. The DOW will have to make it's mind up quick since the lower tine of the mid term fork is slowly catching up and will be at our current levels by mid March. As previously posted Mid March seems increasingly significant as many of my trendlines are converging there. I am honestly perplexed how the indexes are staying up as almost every stock I look at is lower right now including some of the heavily weighted ones. I am starting to think they are making the numbers up that they post as index levels or else I am just not charting the ones that are staying up in my daily active folders. I am still trying to figure out what the next couple days are going to bring. We are approaching the end of the week so the J6P affect may kick in here soon to fool the masses prior to the weekend. Remember that Louis Rukeyser is on vacation so next week could get ugly real fast. Good Luck, Lee EDIT - I apologize to bb for saying he could single handedly bring down the market by turning bullish. Darn and I was startig to pass the collection plate to bribe him into spamming the threads with bullish talk while we all bought puts. (slowly starts putting velcro suit back on)

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