MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: donald sew who wrote (7439)	3/3/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Donald, You may be right. The investing public may not be selling. However when you look at the amount of money going into money market accounts versus equity mutual funds I think you would agree that they are at least skittish. Lets forget about charts and trendlines for a minute and lets look at the things that are out in the open. You cannot watch CNBC for an hour without hearing about the poor internals in the market. The same thing applies to anyone that reads Barrons, WSJ, or IBD. Look at the backup in rates we've seen in such a short period of time. Realistically how much higher can they go? Recently I read that put buyers outnumbered calls 146 to 100. These things are here today. So I do believe there is some bearishness out there. Besides, the high tech generals have been clipped pretty good in the past couple of weeks. But yet we have a DOW at 9200 - that on a monthly bar chart still has higher lows for each month from our Oct. bottom. Transports that have actually been rising. Bank stocks that have been rising despite the backup in rates. Major players like CMB, FDX and WCOM recently hitting 52 week highs. The overall corrective patterns of companies like DELL, T, IBM even INTC from their recent highs to me look bullish. So I just question the amount of lead time this market is giving everyone to prepare before it crashes. Let me add that because of all the divergences I'm seeing on the charts. I believe its still too early to say which way its going to break. Here are a couple of things I noticed tonight: A quick look at the airlines and you'll find many gaps on the charts of UAL, U, and DAL from their recent run-ups. Many high techs today reversed at the close. The VIX looks like its trying to consolidate again after its recent breakdown. We still have an unresolved pattern in gold prices - a possible break of a pattern established since 96. Utilities sitting on longer term support. So I do believe a break from this recent consolidation is close at hand. One way or the other. And of course I believe the market will give some sort of advance warning to the direction of that break. I'm just not convinced yet that the direction will be down. The price action the remainder of this month should point the way. Good trading. SO

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