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Non-Tech : Ingram Micro

IM 38.89

0.0%

Dec 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dale Stempson who wrote (291)	3/3/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: JP	Read Replies (1) of 576

First, a little background on me... I've owned a computer reseller business since early 1986 (as a result of closely observing market trends, I have since transitioned the business to one of a high-end network integration model) and have been using Ingram-Micro as my primary supplier from the beginning (back then Ingram and Micro-D had not yet merged). I have been told that IM management believes this is the year when the "weak" begin to disintegrate (ala Syquest) and the "strong" reap the "spoils" (ala Iomega). They say this process is being accelerated since the smaller distributors (e.g. Pinacor) is selling at margins that make them cash flow negative. IM management is making some very aggressive moves to fully capitalize on the vast opportunities being offered by the Internet to technology distributors of worldwide mass/scale. They also have their finger on the 'White Box' trigger and will pull it very soon if the major PC manufacturers do not get their 'Build-To-Order' promises implemented. It's actually probably too late now anyway since they must begin to fully utilize the infrastructure created to build lots of PC's very efficiently. The President has publicly stated that he is comfortable with original '99 analyst estimates of 27% earnings growth and 25% revenue growth. IM has never been known to hype their company or their stock so unless they grossly miscalculated (which the stock price already assumes), we should catapult up very quickly once their words are proven by the facts. My big fear for the tech sector in general (and my company specifically) is the 4th quarter since I'm beginning to hear a few of my clients say that they will end "ALL" projects during this period to see how the Y2K situation plays out. Of course this will bring in a fantastic Q1, 2000 but the wait will suck. The last paragraph of your post reminds me of one of my favorite sayings: stock market extremes are caused by two types of fears... the fear of losing, and the fear of losing out. Let's keep our fingers crossed that IM is about to abruptly switch from the later to the former. JP

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