The trend is your friend (more stats for a slow news day)
Since the beginning of 1998, there have been 277 trading days.
During that period, here's a breakdown of Rambus streaks:
Up 2 consecutive days: 17 times
3 days: 10
4 days: 2
5 days: 5
6 days: 1
Down 2 consecutive days: 20 times
3: 6
4: 4
5: 2
7: 1
That accounts for 194 days, 103 of them up.
The other 83 days were 1 day moves.
Conclusion: 74 out of 277 days, Rambus goes either up or down 2 consecutive days. 83 out of 277 days, it goes up or down one day, and the reverse the next. That is 57% of the time that Rambus will make either one or two day moves, not more. Only 120 days out of that time have the streaks in one direction or the other exceeded 2 days.
Thus, the odds are with you to buy after two down days or sell after two up days.
Odds? Yeah, odds. In the 41 days this year, 22 have been down days. Statistically insignificant.
So, if Rambus is down tomorrow, then a betting person might buy at the end of the day to flip the next day.
Of course, that assumes the employment numbers won't tank the market.
Who the hell really knows?
<ggg> |
