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Biotech / Medical : Pharmos (PARS)
PARS 2.700+13.6%Jan 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Omer Shvili who wrote (590)3/4/1999 8:52:00 AM
From: arnie h  Read Replies (1) of 1386
 
Omer: Thanks for the superb summary; it was most enlightening. From the perspective of earnings, BOL revenues in the range of $75 - 100 million should lead to earnings of $.25 or more. As I recall, I pointed this out in a posting somewhere in the Nov. 1997 period.
The real questions are whether BOL revenues will reach that point and when. My thoughts go back to late '97 when Aviv projected BOL revenues at $70 million in 3 years (after FDA approval). This was increased a bit later by Reisenfeld in an interview with the Globe. At that level, PARS would be receiving income of some $20+ million annually. We are now more than a year into FDA approval and are getting income of some $200,000 a quarter. Realistically, from my perspective, it didn't seem likely actual results would come close to hitting the mark for the year 2000. Your analysis puts the BOL $70 - 100 million level a year later. For biotechs, a year delay isn't too bad but I don't have any feel for why the original projections were off base and what is being done to accelerate results.

It's all well and good to put faith in HU211 but 'coin of the realm'
for PARS is currently in the ophthalmic line and I trust the company is doing whatever needs to be done to insure necessary progress in it. The next few quarters ought to be most indicative of whether that progress is being made.

Thanks again. Contributions by you and others have made the PARS thread first rate. Regards,

Arnie
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