Nothing personal guys; but - as an example; you must be used ...
I won't ''name-names'' - as that is an SI ''jailable'' offense...
BUT ! - anyone notice the near euphoric spin on a dime turn in sentiment by some of our most bearish posters of mere days ago ?
These are the same people who were chastising those buying into the selloff, criticizing those who were pointing out the positive trends and early indicators; let alone the strong technicals -not the least of which is the so far, impervious OSX 4-peat bottom of 45. These Nattering Naybobs of Negativity not only spun on a dime here (more like a pin head) but shed their "Bear-skins'' as well - virtual "Turncoats'' <VBG> ! ...nothing like really believing huh ? I'm not referring to those who have been posting good technical and fundamental info and were trading/buying here; many were. But, I am referring to those who now must now be used as the ''Poster Child'' examples of Contrarian Sentiment investing.
Did anything really change that wasn't known days/weeks ago ? The supply trend is favorable - it was so weeks ago. I watched NOESIS preach gloom & doom and forecast $8 oil directly into a contrasting drawdown in supply trends. The API/EIA numbers lag - there is a great delay for the markets current reality to the reporting date. Also - one has to look forward to factor where this trend will be in 3-4- months and determine what the main drivers will be and what, if any major catalysts exist to drive the numbers one way, or another in an accelerated manner.
Now that the bullish early indicator interpretation is proving correct - and the prices are finally reflecting such - it is as if we are in ''Happy Days are Here Again -Land'' and these Nattering Naybobs of Negativity are allmost giddy here - go figure ?
This is not a case of who is right, or who is wrong - that really doesn't matter and is not productive... What this ''IS" about; is the absolute textbook case of being able to ''Trade'' off of investor sentiment; the absolute endoresment of the pure contrarian value of sentiment and the ability to profit by having a plan; trusting the numbers (the plan) even if the market and especially if individual investor sentiment has not yet recognized the numbers. One has to trust the fact driven home by history, that few very few will ever - ''trust the numbers'', very few will ever ''have a plan'' - let alone trade their plan. And very few will ever look farther forward than the end of their nose ! Yes; quite contrary to our ''Mensa Thread'' Oracle who chastised the value of ''looking forward'' - one is indeed highly rewarded by looking far forward when either trading, or investing in the oilpatch. The investor world is made of followers - lemmings & penguins - remember that and trade on that fact and one will continue to be able to ''trade ahead of the market here''...
In this case the ''numbers'' were simply that the storage trend was clearly down and that the Market had yet to adequately factor in the coming effect of either Global, or US reduced production and the not yet felt effect of the International Oil Majors and Independants dramatically slashed Cap Ex budgets. We were at supply levels and on a trend downward in supply that does not and never has, supported $12 Oil. If/When the trend continued, and - if/when the numbers start showing the effect of lower drilling utilization/production-Cap Ex cuts - which are nothing more than the real wold derivative of ''The cure for low prices - is low prices''; then one had to conclude that the market was trailing reality here; and on top of that - that sentiment had driven prices down to re-touch a 4-peat low in prices - quite unbelieveably at the same time that Crude Oil prices AND fundamentals were improving. The prior Oilpatch selloffs we into declining fundamentals - HELLO !- this one was into improving prices and fundamentals ! - very, very few posters caught this glaring anomaly ? Very, very few bought into this opportunity; quite the contrary - most seem to be buying here on a spike up - which is mainly short covering oriented !?
Not that I don't welcome buying here - that is not the point.I knew the hedge funds/traders would short very, very heavilly into the OPEC meeting. The Street could not afford to miss an ''OPEC'' pop here. They shorted the sector - quite intelligently at the same time that the Mutual Fund mangers were doing end of month and coming end of quarter Window Dressing selling.. This created a forward looking buying opportunity well in advance. Hopefully those who recognized this re-occuring event; sat and waited for a selloff into improving crude prices and fundamentals and ''traded their plan''.
Yes Big's ''Plan your trade and trade your plan'' ''Dogma (pun intended) is correct !
This is supposed to be a savy trading oriented board. I'm not riding a high horse here and I am not referring to the many sharp folks who played this correctly. I merely point out that once again the contrarian nature and the act of going against investor sentiment and Street Hype, especially when there are positive conflicting/contary indicators; proved correct once again...
If the glaring anomaly of improving Oil fundamentals & prices contrasted with declining Oilpatch Shareprices did not set off an alarm - and all of the accompanying Bells & Whistles; - then one can only conclude that you are doing nothing more than throwing darts and chasing the Penguin Parade here. Sorry ... if you aren't looking far forward here in the Oilpatch - you are doomed to get ''hit'' everytime you venture into crossing this Street...
Presently; the OPEC meeting is a huge catalyst - one will either get "Whipsawed'' here and very dramatically so, if either the Street takes profits off of postive OPEC news, or if OPEC doesn't have positive news... buying here now - sets one up to be purely at the mercy of the Street and it's sentiment. Buying a few weeks ago to the present, sets one up to be able to trade ahead of the Street and to take advantage of their ''reaction'' in either direction...
"CONTRARIAN" - yes, this word will once again return to its place of glory; soon, very soon...
Remember this lesson well. If one has a plan; and if one sees the numbers and most importantly trusts the numbers, or trends - learn to buy directly into the crescendo of negative sentiment and falling prices. Do so especially if both the fundamentals and the technicals support doing so. Negative investor sentiment so skews supply/demand equilibrium and thus value; that at the end of a selloff cycle - one can pick up dramatic risk vs. reward anomalies. We had them here of late - and a few still exist.
Good Luck; look twice and far down the road before crossing the Streets here ...
PS - Big Oil up sharply in Euro trading - Ball is in their court <VBG> ! |
