Patrick check these comments, Arch Crawford is reported here:
nirv.com
Comments on 12 February for the market on 13 February 1997
Yesterday, I said that we were in wave 3 and that it had farther up to go. I think wave 3 pretty well
played itself out today and today was the scheduled end of the short term cycle. We should begin a
retracement, soon, which, according to cycles, would end around February 20. However, these
low turning points have been coming in very early, and I would not be surprised for this one to
come in early, also. Then we head up to the major turning point officially scheduled for March 4.
That is, if all goes according to plan, which it never does. An alternative interpretation is that the
advance is ending, now. However, as I look at my list of primary stocks, many of them still appear
to need to put in at least one more new high, which tends to confirm the first case. Precious metals
took off today, supporting the second case.
Comments on 11 February for the market on 12 February 1997
The market is unfolding exactly as it should, and as I have been discussing. Although these things
are never certain, it still looks like the triangle ended Friday and for those of you who are keeping
score at home, this looks like wave 3, which may not be completed, so look for a completion of 3,
a retracement in 4, a thrust up in 5, and then ... we shall see, but the odds are that at least a pretty
good retracement will have begun. It will be interesting to see whether the NASDAQ will make
new highs.
Comments on 10 February for the market on 11 February 1997
I watched Arch Crawford on CNBC last week. I have been fascinated with traders who do well
using astrology. My simplistic rationalization was that there are monthly and yearly cycles in the
market (although it is not clear why) and astrology is just another way of looking at that same data.
However, astrology buffs use tools other than conjunctions. Arch is the 6th best market timer over
the past 8 years and has beaten the market on a risk adjusted basis. Given my cycle and
Fibonacci-based concerns about the market beginning February 12, I was interested in the
following in an article by Kathy M. Kristof of the "Los Angeles Times": Arch says, "I am looking for
a sharp rally up into the middle of February, but I'm advising people to start getting out around the
3th and be completely out of the market by the 19th... The market will rally again in March, but
after the lunar eclipse on March 24, watch out... I expect a sharp drop."
A comment I missed on Friday was by Treasury secretary Rubin, who said that the dollar had gone
high enough at a Group of Seven meeting. That was the basis of the spike up in the Swiss franc, yen
and Deutschemark. Since the dollar is getting close to the end of an abc swing, where a and c are
of the same length, it looks like technicals and fundamentals may be coming together.
If the triangle was completed on Friday, we have begun the last move up. Friday's lows are key. If
they hold, new highs will come quickly. If they don't, the retracement will be deeper. The
NASDAQ looks like it needs to go a little lower, but is ready to rally to at least test recent highs.
Gene |
