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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (23210)3/4/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
MMV, I think you're giving "them" too
much credit when there are many competing
interests, not a collective one, at work
here.

From my perspective the roughly coincidental
decision to inflate Japanese money supply(long
overdue) and the growing perception of strong
US real activity without further Fed assistance
tagged the yen against the dollar. In the background
the Japanese fiscal year is coming to a close and
repatriation would imply a higher yen. OTOH
Japanese exporters are favoring a lower yen.

I wouldn't paint an overall strategic picture of Japanese policy
for their many constituents because I still don't think it
exists. In some ways, MOF and BOJ are still groping, and
hoping, in the dark. In order to "control" interest rates
through large liquidity injections they had to let
go of currency targets. But MOF is still confused if it
thinks it can control the yield curve and long rates. They
have a ton of national, local and pension refundings that
need to be accomplished if they are serious about balance
sheet cleanups--the most important factor for their economy
to move forward IMHO. The market will determine Japanese
long rates and they may have to rise to accomodate the supply
and compete with US rates.
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