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Biotech / Medical : NexStar Pharm(NXTR)
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To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (322)3/4/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: Chris Boylan  Read Replies (1) of 328
 
<<This proposed buyout is, at best, poorly timed and ill-conceived.>>

> Why? And for whom?

For NXTR shareholders. I was expecting the stock to be in the 20's
in Q3 after the spin-off based strictly on AmbiSome sales. I
think they sold cheap.

>In short and imo ( I know both company very well), if anyone is to >blame for NXTR performance in last two years it is company >management. Merge (I see this as merge of bigger and smaller) with >GILD is positive for both company (each has good and bad points) and >NXTR SH will benefit more than from NXTR standalone.

Nexstar management has done a poor job, particularly managing expectations for the last three years. Recently they have put way
too much emphasis on becoming profitable "real soon now". They
should have lowered Selex expenditures 2 years ago. Etc. Now they
compounded their prior errors but selling the company at it's
nadir. I had read rumors that the company was for sale but I'd
discounted them because the timing was stupid. Oops.

I think holding the stock after the merger is dangerous. I
think there is a good possibility that GILD could crater because
there are such enormous expectations built up over PREVEON and RS4104.
The stock's capitalization (minus cash) assumes that both drugs
are winners and in fact both drugs have significant potential to
be useless.

If PREVEON gets approved who is going to use it? Hardly
anyone with HIV and already on a inhibitor cocktail has a reason to switch drug regiments that I can see.
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