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Biotech / Medical : NexStar Pharm(NXTR)

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To: Chris Boylan who wrote (325)	3/4/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: Rob-Chemist	Read Replies (1) of 328

Assuming that Preveon is effective, I think that there will almost certainly be a substantial market for it in HIV treatment. The cocktail therapy is not the panacea that most of the popular news makes it out to be for the following reasons. (1) Side effects are significant. (2) Resistance to the therapy does show up, and resistance to protease inhibitors often shows up as multiple resistance. (3) Taking people off of the cocktail therapy is generally viewed as very high risk. It is becoming clear that even after extended therapy and no detectable virus in the blood, many cells in the body still harbor HIV DNA. For some unknown reason, the HIV is remaining latent in these cells. If and when this HIV will become active is presently unclear. Preveon almost certainly would not be a blockbuster, but probably could have moderate sales of a couple hundred million or so. That said, I tend to agree that owning GILD is high risk, and I think that NXTR would be better off either continuing as a stand-alone company or by being purchased by a large pharmaceutical company, such as Glaxo-Wellcome.

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