Mikey
i feel the need for some speed......:>}
actually my friend, trading buddy, and West Coast Smart Person,<g>, i have to rely on something.."feelies" and instincts won't get it...
i like this P&F stuff...it great for me...simple and trustworthy...
Now My Friend..let's get down to the nitty gritty......
First it is my opinion this rally, or for that matter any rally is hollow and self serving...there is no broad based participation...the internals are awful...hence the NYSEBP is heading lower & lower...
i do not have the conviction that most have about the markets...when the warnings/earnings and trouble begins in earnest shortly, the market will be murderous on any short falls...and there will be short falls..
lets look at all the things we both follow...of course anyone can & will interpret these indicators/indexs differently...but here it goes..
SPX...1245 is the third time we are here..1250 would break a triple top and give a buy signal, how ever if we don't go imediately above 1255 i would think this could be a BULL TRAP...1255 is the KEY...if we reverse off here 1230 would be a 3 box reversal down, and would not be a good sign...
SOX...reversed up to 365 a 2nd try here, 370 would be a new buy signal and i would think it could retrace to 395 as the 50% retrace from the recent low pole...345 triple bottom sell signal and would head right to 320.....when you put all these togetther as i go forward a picture will occur as to what "could" happen as these indicators converge all together...with the stocks they represent...
DJIA...just gave a buy signal today at 9450...at 9650 it would be a BSB!!!! but remember this represents the DOW!!!!!!!ONLY!!!!!
BKX...845 would be a triple top breakout heading to 865-870, at 825 that would be a 3 box reversal down heading to 820...
OEX...just did an amazing large reversal today UP after a double bottom sell signal off a low pole...624 is a buy, 606 support twice...has upside to 642...
now for you Mikey...as you know i was short INTC at the 130 strike...i felt that the semis were overvalued and ran up to hard to fast..i spoke about AMAT as well..
INTC...just reversed it's RS(Relative Strength) into a column of O's, and at the same time so did the BPSEMI indicator after is went up 3 boxes from the bottom...so it fell, reversed up, and then collapsed down hard...that's the semi indicator...INTC 110 would be a 3 box reversal down, 118 the next X up, that should take it to 124...i WOULD SELL THAT MOVE UP, FROM AN OVERSOLD LOW POLE POSITION at 124.. this would be a 50% retrace up from the bottom we just got at around 109ish...
so actually i would sell the SOX-SEMIS-INTC & AMAT all these trading shares.. if we reverse up 50% from the lows on the stocks and index...i do not believe they will make new highs in the near future...actually AMAT's chart is much better...from a major low pole selloff to about 55, is has formed a bullish triangle like DELL did..this should runnup towards 63 a 50% retrace from the selloff...
In closing Mikey...the markets are not healthy...these rallies are hollow cores of selected stocks...interest rates are rising rapidily, empl. is tight, GDP flying up...all inflationary imo...
so i will stay the course...i'll wait for the 1st indicator the Hi/Low index to reverse up for a short term rally, then maybe the Percent of 10 week Mva indicator will reverse up to confirm it...maybe not...BUT before i commit large sums of cash i will wait for a 3 box reversal from the NYSEBP and then feel comfortable to invest the real money at that time...i follow these indicators not lead them...
From 30% below the line to 70% above the line, i'll take the numbers inbetween...good enough for me...oh of course i'll do some nutty stuff, but not for big funds...funny money and the like...
Anyway that's the sum and substance of these P&F indicators and charts...nothing is an exact science, but gee whiz they have helped me make good money and stem major losses from my impulsive, compulsive, overly optimistic, bullish nature...it's hard Mikey to be ME!!<ggggg> |
