Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (38978)	3/4/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Doug; great point - the next play here is the lagging Nat Gas/ E&P's We are merely a smidgin from 310ish Million boe in supply and that clearly has suppported not just $14.50 Crude - but $18+ crude. Now I am NOT predicting $18+ crude anytime real soon, and I think supply numbers will bounce week to week slightly above and slightly below 320 M boe. But, if we continue to trend down under 310 M boe and OPEC either has continued 70%+/- compliance, or announces new cuts; then we will in months be seeing and hearing talk of the return of $18 crude - maybe even Q2-3 2000. So I agree $15 crude this year is right in the crosshairs. The new trading range will be $14-15 and I see $16 this year as a real possibility. Now if only OPEC doesn't get stupid... and turn on the spiggots. You made a great point a while back - That being that especially in Nat Gas - there is not adequate drilling activity to ''back fill'' for coming normalized demand. Just weeks past your original comments we got Analyst upgrades left & right to 2000 Nat Gas estimates of $2.50 - $2.75+. Again, the Street will start looking forward and these Nat Gas stocks will start moving imho. I love EVER PETD and numerous Nat Gas E&P's. BR NBL in large caps, MARY, MLRC and I like APA here as well on any dip. I think if we see OPEC cut - these Nat Gas plays will move in lockstep and are great earnings improvement plays going forward. Remember the charts from Robry of the CWEI thread - the upside earnings leverage for some companies is huge on just each $1-2 move in crude oil, or each .50 cents in Nat Gas... Per the posts tonight; The mystical ''missing'' Oil and the possibility of the EIA, or API revising their numbers really brings a real world conspiracy theory into play. The World had to have cheap Oil to allow Greenspan-Rubin & Co. et al to save the World... If these numbers get revised - and remember there is a GAO investigation ongoing - then we just might surprise eveyone on how soon we return to normal crude prices. $18 seems so far away.... but then again; not so long ago, so did $10...

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