Monsanto Arthritis-Pain Drug, Celebrex,
Surpasses Viagra 's Early Sales Success
By Thomas M. Burton
03/05/99
The Wall Street Journal
Monsanto Co.'s new arthritis-pain drug, Celebrex, has surpassed impotence medication Viagra in generating record numbers of daily prescriptions early in its marketing cycle.
Celebrex, now in its seventh week on the market, is on track to becoming the top-selling drug ever as measured in generating early sales. Market researchers NDC Health Information Services found that in three of the last four days, Celebrex surpassed the total prescriptions generated by Pfizer Inc.'s Viagra at a comparable stage in its marketing cycle.
"It could become a $2 billion drug this year," said Shel Silverberg, senior vice president of NDC, which supplies marketing information to the pharmaceutical industry. "This drug seems to be causing the market to expand." That is a phenomenon that occurred with some other successful recent drugs, such as Eli Lilly & Co.'s antidepressant Prozac and its antipsychotic drug Zyprexa. In the pain market, ibuprofen still leads with more than 30% of total prescriptions, in addition to over-the-counter sales.
Having already seized more than 20% of the arthritis-pain market, Celebrex also is well on its way to posing a high hurdle for Merck & Co., which will be selling a competing drug, Vioxx, as early as next month on the U.S. market. Doctors and industry officials estimate that roughly one-third of arthritis sufferers are considered "dissatified" with their current medication, and eager to embrace a new one.
But, since Celebrex likely will be used by most of those patients by the time Vioxx will be considered for Food and Drug Administration approval in late April, Merck may have to consider whether to try to undercut Celebrex in price. (Merck officials said that hasn't been decided.) Since the average dose of Celebrex runs close to $3 a day at many drugstores, Merck may need to consider whether to focus on another third of the arthritis market. Those are the patients, many of them elderly, who don't have insurance coverage for the prescription and find it hard to afford Celebrex.
Celebrex and Vioxx are the forerunners of a new class of pain drugs known as Cox-2 inhibitors because they act against an enzyme called cyclooxygenase-2. The drugs are believed to avoid some of the gastrointestinal side effects that occur in some patients who use older medicines.
Paradoxically, Celebrex is a rocket ship that hasn't lately boosted the stock price of Monsanto. Many investors are concerned about other Monsanto enterprises, such as the heavy debt load it took on to buy $8 billion in seed companies and other investments in speculative agriculture biotechnology ventures. Investors, too, are concerned about the future form of Monsanto because it is engaged in talks regarding possible business combinations with DuPont Co. and other companies.
While Celebrex's spectacular start did help propel Monsanto from $37.25 a share on Jan. 19, when the drug was launched, to as high as $50 a share in early February, the share price settled at $44 earlier this week before news of possible takeover talks emerged. Monsanto shares closed at $46.1875 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, down 43.75 cents.
Pfizer is co-marketing Celebrex with Monsanto's Searle drug division, and also is the maker of Viagra , whose sales started slipping in its sixth week on the market.
Celebrex generated 51,808 prescriptions on Monday compared with Viagra 's 51,728 on the Monday of its seventh week on the market. Viagra was at 58,893 on Monday of its sixth week, significantly exceeding Celebrex's 38,789 on Monday a week ago.
Pfizer and Monsanto haven't specified how Celebrex profits are split, but some Wall Street analysts have estimated that Monsanto will keep 55% to 60%.
The pain market is fast becoming more complex, with the emergence of Abbott Laboratories as a co-marketer of Boehringer Ingelheim's new pain drug Mobic in the U.S. But Abbott will face the same obstacle that Merck will: If the so-called dissatisfied patients conclude that Celebrex works for them, they are unlikely to switch drugs anytime soon. Doctors say that a new arthritis drug often will work for at least a year in new patients before they find they need to try a new medicine for their pain.
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