Look guys, this is not complicated.
You and Ward are obviously technical traders & your strategy is to get in & out of stocks on momentum plays.
If that's the case, fundamentals don't apply to your decisions -- I understand that & respect that. If I was flipping stocks, I also couldn't care less about fundamentals.
What I have been trying to say in the last few posts is this; If you are value investor like me, you look at past mgmt performance, balance sheet, profitability, their long-term business strategy, & the overall market for their product.
On all those fronts, YF does not merit a failure to the extent that it is being judged today.
I have owned my own telecom & software business for over 7 years and have been in business at a fairly senior mgmt level in various different corporations for the past 20 years.
In my experience, one thing became obvious. BUSINESS IS FRAUGHT WITH RISK & UNEXPECTED EVENTS. Companies go up & down in their fotunes (& profitability of course) through no fault of their own in some situations. Very few corporations shoot up without any glitches in earnings, revenues or share price from a start-up to a mature large-cap company. Even companies like Dell, ATI, Northern Telecom have had huge ups & downs.
If you have any experience running a company of any size you will know that it's nearly impossible to show double digit revenue/profit gains from beginning to the end. What matters is how mgmt deals with these setback & their committment to their long-term strategy.
To make a conclusion that YF is doomed, you must have some facts to back it up. You cannot conclude that a company is doomed because it's stock price went down substantially. If we were to apply your herd-mentality logic without any basis, Northern Telecom should be bankrupt by now since they also had a huge run on their stock two times in the last 5 years -- mostly driven by Analyst warnings which were completely off the mark.
In fact if you look at almost any blue-chip stocks and look at their share price history over the past 20 years, I think you will find some incredible downturns in their share price and guys like you and Ward I am sure would have bailed out if you honestly believe that Market is always right. |
