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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: J.L. Turner who wrote (4322)3/5/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: O. H. Rundell  Read Replies (2) of 9818
 
JLT,

Thanks for putting up Bruce Webster's analysis of the Senate report.

I'm having some difficulty reconciling his move from a "5" to a "6" with the probabilities shown in his table. He shows a (new) .66 probability of a "5" or less, and a median of "5".

I do note that he remarks that "Even these adjusted probabilities may be optimistic...."

Bruce's "6" puts him very much in line with Dr. Ed Yardeni, who BTY has now gone to a table of probabilities similar to the one in Bruce's post--although condensed into 5 levels of outcome.
yardeni.com

It is difficult to know if there is really much substance behind the assignment of probabilities to the various outcomes, but this type of presentation is much to be preferred over a single number. After all, who--other than the Kid--really knows...? <g>

O. H.
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