I think Xoma went down today because RobertK is MIA.
<<One point, I keep reminding myself of, is that the trial is double-blinded, so it would appear that no one knows including Xoma how well or how badly the trial is progressing.>>
Or maybe this week's European presentation leaked.
Mark Twain reminded us that two people can keep a secret as long as one of them is dead. I know what the double-blind rules are. I also know it is naive to believe that word won't leak out. It is equally naive to expect to prove it. Look at what happened a year ago with Michael Murphy. After pumping Xoma for months and months he dumped it without a moment's hesitation just before Xoma announced there would be no early halt to the P-3 in March. Then he gave some lame excuse about finding a more compelling place to put his money.
<So my question is....if bad news were to leak -- who would have access to the info???>
If one assumes a leak then it almost certainly will come either from the DSMB entity itself or from the Xoma entity. By "entity" I have in mind not just the people directly involved but those who come in contact with them and those who are birddogging those people. We know from the FAQ that two (I think it is) Xoma employees are kept abreast of overall deaths but are sworn to secrecy. One can assume, too, that someone connected with Xoma takes orders for the stuff, is on station to answer questions or discuss protocols with clinical test site personnel, types letters for these people, copies lengthy documents, prints formal reports, carries out the garbage, etc. etc. It's always possible to meet someone for a quiet lunch, or have a quick word in the rest room, or chat about work on the 12th green, or ask "how's it look, anyway" of some distant hospital personnel who call up to say a shipment arrived broken or not at all.
As for the DSMB, these guys and gals have other jobs, too. They need to catch planes, schedule and cancel appointments, talk to each other,
write letters, send things to the copy room, chat with their juniors, eat lunch, call their brokers, etc. etc. Same dynamics. Some of them even might play golf.
Is it necessary to imagine a Xoma employee or DSMB member slipping someone the word? No. Much meaning can be conveyed by a a frown, a grunt, a smile, or an almost imperceptible shake (or nod) of the head. It is also easy to foresee any persistent follower of Xoma, say someone who writes newsletters and has a really shitty track record for picking stocks, hanging around Xoma's offices, setting up tee times with the janitors, lunching in the same diners, sifting through their trash, etc. etc.
I believe Xoma is sincere when it says they don't know the results and they are doing everything they can to protect the double-blind
protocol. I also know banks do their best not to be robbed.
In my opinion the circumstantial evidence of stock trades and price action will provide an early warning sign of the results. The trouble with this kind of guesswork is that by the time it becomes clear enough from those indirect signs it's usually too late. In other words, we need to see an established pattern and by the time it develops it's history. Only hindsight clarifies but Wall Street works in realtime.
Where, oh, where is RobertK when we need him? |
