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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model
EBAY 84.66+1.2%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (1968)3/5/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: Stewart Elliot  Read Replies (2) of 7772
 
I would definitely steer clear of shorting this stock until we meet the following 3 criteria:
1. After 1Q earnings and insiders can release a few more of their shares. Earnings are going to blow away the estimates. More importantly, revenue growth is going to greatly exceed the forecasts. We will likely see another big run-up in mid-April before the announcement, and as long as the auction count keeps going up like it has been, the stock price will have excellent buying support. Insider selling for the quarter is mostly over at this point, so very little additional dilution will happen between now an the end of April.
2. The auction growth rate slows dramatically. If this declines to 40% a quarter (sequentially) or less, we'll see a big exit from the stock.
3. A significant decline in the short position (to something less than 3million post-split shares). The huge short position is the cause for these amazing runs, and as long as it persists, the spikes will keep happening with any piece of good news.

If you're short, I'd get out unless you've got deep pockets and you can sleep well at night holding this thing. Don't talk about P/Es or P/S - it doesn't matter in the short term on this stock. Too much demand, not enough stock, and everything is extremely positive. I am incredibly happy I boxed my short.

At some point the party ends, but it's no fun being a short while you wait it out - definitely not worth the agony.
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