VLAD <<That being said and the fact that MUSE sales have been respectable in England 3 months post Viagra, do you believe that in light of major near future European market launches that Vivus' current share price is justified. >>
V-Man: Very hard to translate market shares of small markets with country restrictions to larger markets. The real action is in the two largest Pharma markets; US and Japan. In comparison, the UK market is ranked #7 and has a national formulary.
Another problem: MUSE international profits are shared with a partner. Until, the size of MUSE sales become clear and profits fall to the VVUS bottom line, I don't think launches will be a factor in effecting the price of VVUS.
VLAD <<If after MUSE is launched throughout Europe and let's say China we see gross annual sales running at about $250M + what IYO would be a fair valuation for Vivus.>>
V-Man: China is currently a difficult market for any pharmaceutical product. No ED product is currently approved there and sales estimates are virtually impossible. When the sales potential and potential profitability are unclear for a product, approvals and milestone payments will not significantly move a Pharma stock .
VLAD <<Would you agree with the statement that there has been manipulation of Vivus stock whether it be via market makers or other well financed players?>>
V-Man: Sorry V-Man, we disagree on this point. This is a very large market with thousands of players. Stock price is primarily based on current earnings, an evaluation of management and future products, and the prospect for future earnings growth potential.
VLAD: How do you explain the fact that with all of Pfizer's recent advertising (both print adds and TV commercials) new Viagra scripts have continued to be in that same range of 70,000 give or take 5,000?
V-Man: I really don't think Viagra consumer ads significantly effect Rx specification. After the initial surge (with no consumer advertising), Viagra Rxs have leveled off to around 68,000 New Rxs per week. But, this level is still very high. In comparison, last year's other blockbuster, Evista, averages 19,000 New Rxs per week.
VLAD <<Has Viagra seen its peak in new prescriptions?>>
V-Man: It doubtful that Viagra will ever see 279,000 New Rxs in a single week again (5/8/98)..which resulted primarily from pent-up demand and the media blitz. However, Viagra refill Rxs (around 102,000 per week) have shown continuing growth right from launch (indicating happy returning patients). Total monthly Viagra Rxs are also higher than any time since August 1998.
On a positive note: the price of VVUS seems to bounce off the 2 1/4 wall and there is always hope for a brighter tomorrow!
BigKNY3 |
