Thoughtful post, Michael. I'll offer a "tweak."
On the basis of TA and "fundamentals," nobody can really argue with your take. It's very matter-of-fact and surgically precise. It's also well, discouraging, so we shall have to do better. Therefore, some good news: A simple "hook" that can, with the click of a mouse, change this dynamic and flip it on its ear. It is...the press release.
What we need to announce are some strategic relationships with the Big Boys: AOL, AMZN, ATHM/XCIT, CBS/MKTW/SPLN, DIS/SEEK, MSFT, NBC/CNET/Snap!, USAI/TMCS/LCOS and YHOO. If we can get this act together, we will start to show up on the radar of opinion leaders and the media. We will get our story on CNBC. Wall Street will start to notice and the stock price will move. (And, once started, if AXC can keep momentum going, a great deal of noise can be made.)
I haven't heard it expressed this way before, so I'll make an out-of-the-box call. Let's say there are now 50mm AXC shares outstanding at a closing price of $2.75. That's total market capitalization of just $137.5mm.
On the day BCST went public last July, it had about 17.1mm shares outstanding at an IPO price (for 2.875mm shares) of $18.00. That's total market capitalization of $307.8mm.
So, for AXC to reach the same capitalization that BCST achieved (for just an instant!) on its first day as a public company would only require a stock price about 2.24X AXC's closing price on 03/05/98. This is a very modest $6.1875 (and yet, a price that AXC has not seen in recent memory). Incidentally, BCST's current market capitalization is over $3B.
Now, I'm not advocating strategic relationships or press releases or any other parlor games as vehicles for hyping the stock. That would be an insult to the legacy of Alexander Poniatoff and really, to all of us. But AXC can afford neither shrinking violets nor strategic oversights. These are critical business initiatives that cannot wait. And frankly, reaching this level of market capitalization is a trivial byproduct of doing what's right. If we're gonna be in the Net media business, we had better know how to spell...b-u-z-z!
I'm hoping what we'll soon be debating is how to get to $12.375...
BAM |
