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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology
STX 261.38+1.2%4:00 PM EST

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To: Tony Wang who wrote (7010)3/6/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: William Epstein  Read Replies (1) of 7841
 
Tony Wang;

I would agree but where do you see 3 3/4 pts. It rallied on Fri. 1 7//8 pts. Do you mean from the bottom?

Why do HC and myself feel that the down slide hasn't finished? The reason was because of the specialist's trading pattern which we have studied for a long time. If he wanted to take it down some more I guessed that he would cap it under 30. If you look at 3 mos. chart you will see that the structure of the decline is in a stair step pattern. We are on the last stair. He wants to make another 5 pt. drop. That is why the stock has leveled off into a very narrow 2 pt. trading range for the last week. I don't care that he does it but I wish he would get on with it. About the rest I agree. Once he has gone long the stock will zoom up very quickly and we'll see 35 maybe 2-3 days later. That's his M.O. We have all seen it before.

Overall, the direction of this stock is up. It will get to its previous high and to its all time high probably, this year. I am not negative about the stock or I wouldn't own calls and I would sell it off but just for the next few days/weeks. Another superimposed pattern is that the stock really starts to rise about a month before the reporting date and then drops after the report comes out. It doesn't seem to matter how good or bad the report is. The stock follows that pattern every time. That is how I was able to predict this decline back in January. Though, I didn't think it would be this deep. Looking at TA last night. The statistics seem to confirm it. MACD is still negative although, its getting towards the neutral line, slow stochastic is not high enough for the stock to rally. It needs to be over 80 and is now about 50 but it has moved up this week. Money flow is level but negative. Basically, there is no money, no momentum yet. The charts and statistics don't show me anything. Believe me, I hope I am wrong. I would love to be surprised to the upside.
PHOTOMAN

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