Tim,
<<At what point has the stock price gotten ahead of the company? Lots of price appreciation, but also lots of solid fundamentals.>>
I have the same question. I find it very hard to evaluate a startup, since the traditional evaluation data doesn't exist yet. I had the same problem with Qwest (and never took a position). In looking over GBLX, however, I was so impressed with their management team, financing, and overall business model, that I took a core position a couple of weeks ago.
I look for companies that have excellent management, are in a high growth business, are in a business with high barriers to entry, and dominant their market. Global appears to meet the first three criteria. I don't expect a startup to dominate any time soon, of course, so I will waive my fourth requirement.
I am also making a leap of faith that the undersea cable market won't get overbuilt. With the huge growth in international data traffic, I presume that won't happen anytime soon. In addition, with the massive investment it takes to lay a undersea pipe, I am also assuming that the smart money won't overbuild - that is the biggest risk I see to this company.
The big question is, at what point is this stock overvalued? When is it time to stop accumulating (assuming that the stock price continues to appreciate, of course).
Any thoughts?
Regards
DN |
