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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SargeK who wrote (39107)3/6/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Sarge-re FGI-I know next to nothing about FGI. Whatever I do know is more or less broad brush stuff...With that out of the way, ALL I am 'saying' (as in a question not an opinion) is that at present the 'consensus' eps guesstimate going forward is for $1.70 in 99 and $1.10 in 2000. So, using 2000, we are now at an 10-11 pe and of the 7 brokers covering it 4 have SB's, 1 a B and 1 H....When I look at that, I say to myself "they're too optimistic". In a cyclical industry at the bottom stock prise wise, I'd be anticipating the consensus number for 2000 to be slashed to more like 50c and most of the SB's to at least be reduced to B. ....The analysts all had SB's on SCSWF too -all the way down from the top-so their numbers are meaningless as a guage to what is likely to happen. I tell myself over and over again when looking at a cycical industry..Sell when the multiples are low and the analysts are mostly at SB..Buy when the opposite is true....I am not really questioning FGI per se here-just the concept.
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