Eric et all, some comments from VP Dahlquist about the next 6-7 years,should be killer for HLIT.
cedmagazine.com
In the meantime, however, the fiber business is expected to
continually re-invent and re-distribute itself to new businesses such as high-speed data and Internet. "Much depends on voice, video, IP and the Internet. They can really drive the need for bandwidth in the return path," says John Dahlquist, vice president of broadband marketing for Harmonic Lightwaves Inc., a designer and manufacturer of lightwave and digitally-based HFC networks.
The insatiable thirst for more bandwidth, Dahlquist says, will drive fiber deeper into domestic cable networks for several years to come. "More operators are building out to 500 homes per node or less. And because of the traffic models generated by each MSO, like new services, new transmitters will need to be installed."
He is also cognizant of the potential domestic fiber downturn. "The domestic market will remain strong for five to six years. Our product development strategy takes us outside the traditional lightwave business because the competition for a finite market will get even more intense," Dahlquist says.
In Harmonic Lightwave's case, the non-traditional market means international. "We will increase our focus internationally. That market has a good chance of growing larger than our domestic market," Dahlquist adds.
In seven years, however, the fiber business is likely to look very different, and very foreign. Says Dahlquist: "There's a tremendous amount of business out there, and we'll start to see a comeback in the year 2000. It will eventually grow faster than the domestic market."
Yet most fiber component manufacturers expect the next seven years to produce impressive revenues on the domestic side, along with providing a road map to new services that will require a substantial number of fiber miles in the U.S. Beyond the magical seven-year mark, however, the fiber business "over there" is likely to take hold.
Tim |
