In my mind, there is little doubt that ATHM subscribers would not pay any extra amount to keep AOL, or any other ISP. Even though I don't have broadband at home (I do at the office), I imagine that once the household gets a taste of high speed internet service, they would migrate to whatever content, email, etc, the default portal would have, in this case ATHM.
However, I don't think the AOL-ATHM competition (as embryonic as it is) is being fought at the subscriber churning level. Perhaps one day it will, but not now. What matters today, IMO, is that AOL and ATHM are following two divergent business models: AOL is going after eyeballs and partnerships, and ATHM is going after technology and quality.
The recent Excite aquisition by ATHM and MCI/WorldCom DSL partnership by AOL is testament to the way each company is protecting their flanks, but only to satisfy nervous consumers and investors.
Because of this, it is very premature to reach conclusions or make investments about the future of either of these companies based on subscriber loyalty, current partnerships, or just about anything else that has been discussed in an ATHM-vs-AOL mantra. My bet is that for the foreseeable future (a year in internet time), both companies will continue to prosper, and an investment in either one will be handsomely rewarded.
BWDIK |
