Don't worry about these free ISP for the following reasons:
(1) I have about 10 'free' ISP addresses, some of them want to collect
a one-time fee for $120 to get their dial-up software, but most of
them are free with a very small number of dial-up 'local telnum'.
I live in a neighborhood of 200,000 to 250,000 people, this neighborhood is considered 'local' in BellAtlantic definition, that
means I can call anyone in this area with no extra charge.
Guess what? None of the so called free ISP has a local number for me.
I don't know how many 200,000 people neighborhoods in USA, but I know
there must be a lot and where I live is a neighborhood of average to
above average income househoods, we have 5 big shopping malls around
the 20 miles radius, buses and trains to NYC are available and
I cannot find a local number from the free ISP.
(2)All Tel Co. are ISP as well, I don't see why they should give up
their ISP revenue and provide free access ISP until they
have alternatives.
(3)All free ISP needs big capital upfront to setup the telephone hubs
all over the places to catch EYEBALLS so eventually
some advertisements may show interest and pay their fee for a banner
but the eyeball count must reach certain level to attract the ads $,
it means a lot of local phone hubs for lots of neighborhood, it
means lots a capital, big money to support for a good number
of years, if Bill Gates starts his free ISP, I will worry, Warren B.
has the clouts but he is not stupid.
(4) If free ISP is becoming trend, ATHM and all cable modem operators
will experience sudden death first.
(5) Free ISP and free cable modem are good for us, but not making practical and economic senses for business.
England and Irland (Europe) may provide free ISP, because they don't
have our local phone system, evary call they make, they have to pay
by the minute, so a free ISP may team up with the phone co. to get
more people hooked on the Internet for longer time so the phone
co can make more money and cut a % to the free ISP provider.
I can see AOL do the same over there sooner or later because
they can get most advistement $ and share the phone charge with
local phone co to compensate the loss of the monthly charge but I cannot see AOL do the same here in USA as long as the local-long distancd structure remains unchanged, and it will take years for congress to pass a law or 2 to change that structure.
(6) ISP monthly fees stays steady by hours or by unlimited access
standard in the past few years, my guess is some basic cost to ISP
has reached the bottom, they must charge certain minumn fee to stay
above water and there are 20, 30 thousands small ISPs around USA,
I cannot imagine them supporting any law for free ISP because they are surely
to go belly-up first.
(7) As long as AOL keeps on growing the e-commerce and ads dollars, their eyeball counts, the % of their monthly fees to the revenue will
slowly decress, other fees will start picking up the %, so if
one day free ISP arrives as a main stream (won't be soon for reasons
stated above), AOL shall stand to provide AOL for all and still
hold the eyeball world!
My 2 cents... |
